Fasil Ketema 0–0 Mekelakeya: Result & Stats

Fasil Ketema

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mekelakeya

3/13/2026

Premier League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Fasil Ketema35%

×Draw30%

Mekelakeya35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fasil KetemaExpected goals in this matchMekelakeya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.06

Fasil Ketema

1.07

Mekelakeya

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 81 away

1.28

creates per match

1.35

0.78

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Fasil Ketema

1.28

Mekelakeya

1.35

allows per match

Fasil Ketema

0.78

Mekelakeya

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fasil Ketema ↓

Mekelakeya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fasil Ketema or draw

65%

Fasil Ketema or Mekelakeya

70%

Draw or Mekelakeya

65%

Winning margin

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+

14%

Mekelakeya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals

66%

Fasil Ketema 2+ goals

29%

Fasil Ketema 3+ goals

9%

Mekelakeya 1+ goals

65%

Mekelakeya 2+ goals

29%

Mekelakeya 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)

50%

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fasil Ketema at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 101 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fasil Ketema attack 1.28 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Fasil Ketema scores more

35%

level

30%

Mekelakeya scores more

35%

Fasil Ketema at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff