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FAS vs Isidro Metapán — Primera Division 2019

FAS
FAS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Isidro Metapán
Isidro Metapán
7/20/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 1Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FAS46%
×Draw27%
Isidro Metapán27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAS
1.43
Isidro Metapán
1.03

FAS creates 39% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 147 away

creates per match

FAS
1.60
Isidro Metapán
1.07

allows per match

FAS
0.99
Isidro Metapán
1.25

finishing

FAS+0.00on par
Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAS ↓

Isidro Metapán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FAS or draw
73%
FAS or Isidro Metapán
73%
Draw or Isidro Metapán
54%

Winning margin

FAS wins by 2+
22%
Isidro Metapán wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FAS 1+ goals
76%
FAS 2+ goals
42%
FAS 3+ goals
17%
Isidro Metapán 1+ goals
64%
Isidro Metapán 2+ goals
28%
Isidro Metapán 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FAS (draw refunded)
63%
Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAS at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 155 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAS attack 1.60 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + FAS defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FAS scores more
46%
level
27%
Isidro Metapán scores more
27%

FAS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: FAS 1–0 Isidro Metapán

FAS beat Isidro Metapán 1-0 in Primera Division on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño in Santa Ana.