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FAS vs Firpo — Primera Division 2019

FAS
FAS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Firpo
Firpo
3/1/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

FAS41%
×Draw25%
Firpo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAS
1.47
Firpo
1.29

FAS creates 14% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 133 away

creates per match

FAS
1.60
Firpo
1.58

allows per match

FAS
0.99
Firpo
1.33

finishing

FAS+0.00on par
Firpo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAS ↓

Firpo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FAS or draw
67%
FAS or Firpo
75%
Draw or Firpo
59%

Winning margin

FAS wins by 2+
20%
Firpo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FAS 1+ goals
77%
FAS 2+ goals
43%
FAS 3+ goals
18%
Firpo 1+ goals
72%
Firpo 2+ goals
37%
Firpo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FAS (draw refunded)
55%
Firpo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAS at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 155 matches

Firpo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAS attack 1.60 + Firpo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Firpo attack 1.58 + FAS defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FAS scores more
41%
level
25%
Firpo scores more
33%

FAS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FAS 2 – 0 Firpo

FAS beat Firpo 2-0 in Primera Division on March 1, 2026.