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Farul Constanţa W vs Banat Girls W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Farul Constanţa W
Farul Constanţa W
FT
8 – 0
Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
3/3/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 14Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Farul Constanţa W78%
×Draw13%
Banat Girls W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanţa W
3.04
Banat Girls W
0.95

Farul Constanţa W creates 220% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 43 away

creates per match

Farul Constanţa W
3.31
Banat Girls W
1.30

allows per match

Farul Constanţa W
0.59
Banat Girls W
2.77

finishing

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par
Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanţa W ↓

Banat Girls W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Farul Constanţa W or draw
91%
Farul Constanţa W or Banat Girls W
87%
Draw or Banat Girls W
22%

Winning margin

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+
59%
Banat Girls W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals
95%
Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals
80%
Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals
57%
Banat Girls W 1+ goals
61%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
25%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)
90%
Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanţa W at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.59 · 39 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.31 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.04

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Farul Constanţa W scores more
78%
level
13%
Banat Girls W scores more
9%

Farul Constanţa W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanţa W vs Banat Girls W

Farul Constanţa W beat Banat Girls W 8-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.