Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Craiova

Farul Constanta

Preview

17:00

Universitatea Craiova

2/20/2027

Liga I · Round 27Central Stadium Hagi Academy

Big match

40%

Farul Constanta

model favours

40%27%33%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Farul Constanta40%

×Draw27%

Universitatea Craiova33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Farul Constanta

1.35

Universitatea Craiova

1.21

Farul Constanta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 155 away

1.59

creates per match

1.38

1.04

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.59

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.04

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

67%

Farul Constanta or Universitatea Craiova

73%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

60%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

18%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

74%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

39%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

15%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

34%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

54%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

40%

level

27%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

33%

Farul Constanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Farul Constanta score first in only 19% of matches
Both teams score in 75% of Farul Constanta’s matches
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
Farul Constanta sit 11, Universitatea Craiova 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Constanta

WLLD

Craiova

WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff