Farul Constanta 2–0 Universitatea Craiova

Farul Constanta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Universitatea Craiova

L. Munteanu 35', 17'

8/27/2023

Liga I · Round 7Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Farul Constanta35%

×Draw24%

Universitatea Craiova41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.60

Farul Constanta

1.45

Universitatea Craiova

1.60

Universitatea Craiova creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.37

creates per match

1.45

1.75

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.37

Universitatea Craiova

1.45

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.75

Universitatea Craiova

1.52

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.49scores more

Universitatea Craiova-0.45scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

59%

Farul Constanta or Universitatea Craiova

76%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

65%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

16%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

77%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

42%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

18%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

80%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

47%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

46%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.75 · 7 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.37 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.45 + Farul Constanta defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

35%

level

24%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

41%

Universitatea Craiova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Munteanu

Farul Constanta · F

8.9

Match Events

17'

L. Munteanu↳ I. Vînă

30'

Ștefan Baiaram

35'

L. Munteanu

46'

M. Popescu← A. Mazilu

46'

A. Mateiu← Raúl Silva

46'

A. Crețu← J. Marković

46'

G. Cîmpanu← J. Kurtič

47'

Alexandru Mateiu

57'

Ionuț Vînă

58'

C. Budescu← I. Vînă

58'

Rivaldinho← L. Munteanu

59'

T. Băluță← D. Nedelcu

72'

M. Danciu← Ș. Baiaram

73'

D. Sîrbu← D. Dussaut

78'

E. Koljić← M. Căpățînă

79'

Constantin Budescu

86'

Andrei Ivan

90+2'

Mihai Popescu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarulUniversitatea

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots9

1.44Expected Goals (xG)1.17

2Corners3

17Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots9

8On Target4

5Off Target3

0Blocked2

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

343Total Passes490

260Accurate Passes405

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3