Farul Constanta 1–0 SCM Gloria Buzău

Farul Constanta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SCM Gloria Buzău

2/10/2025

Liga I · Round 26Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Farul Constanta60%

×Draw22%

SCM Gloria Buzău18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchSCM Gloria Buzău

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.95

Farul Constanta

1.92

SCM Gloria Buzău

0.95

Farul Constanta creates 102% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 21 away

1.59

creates per match

0.86

1.04

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.59

SCM Gloria Buzău

0.86

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.04

SCM Gloria Buzău

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

82%

Farul Constanta or SCM Gloria Buzău

78%

Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău

40%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

35%

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

85%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

57%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

30%

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals

61%

SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals

25%

SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

77%

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.92

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.86 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

60%

level

22%

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more

18%

Farul Constanta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff