Farul Constanta 1–1 Ripensia Timisoara

Farul Constanta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ripensia Timisoara

5/31/2019

Liga II · Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Farul Constanta48%

×Draw26%

Ripensia Timisoara26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Farul Constanta

1.50

Ripensia Timisoara

1.04

Farul Constanta creates 44% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 70 away

1.52

creates per match

1.03

1.05

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.52

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.05

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

74%

Farul Constanta or Ripensia Timisoara

74%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

52%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

24%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

78%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

44%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

19%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

65%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

28%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

65%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.52 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Farul Constanta defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

48%

level

26%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

26%

Farul Constanta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff