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Farul Constanta vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
Preview
17:00
Rapid
Rapid
11/7/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 15Central Stadium Hagi Academy
Big match
44%
Farul Constanta
model favours
44%26%30%

Rapid score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Farul Constanta44%
×Draw26%
Rapid30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.43
Rapid
1.13

Farul Constanta creates 27% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.59
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.04
Rapid
1.26

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
70%
Farul Constanta or Rapid
74%
Draw or Rapid
56%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
21%
Rapid wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
76%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
42%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
17%
Rapid 1+ goals
68%
Rapid 2+ goals
31%
Rapid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
60%
Rapid (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rapid attack 1.21 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
44%
level
26%
Rapid scores more
30%

Farul Constanta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Farul Constanta score first in only 19% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Farul Constanta’s matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of Rapid’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Constanta
WLLD
Rapid
LDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Farul Constanta face Rapid (Liga I)

Liga I returns with Farul Constanta hosting Rapid. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Farul Constanta host Rapid at Central Stadium Hagi Academy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.