Farul Constanta 1–1 Rapid: Result & Stats

Farul Constanta

FT

1 – 1

Rapid

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadionul Metrom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Farul Constanta30%

×Draw27%

Rapid44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchRapid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.40

Farul Constanta

1.11

Rapid

1.40

Rapid creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

0.93

creates per match

2.00

0.79

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Farul Constanta

0.93

Rapid

2.00

allows per match

Farul Constanta

0.79

Rapid

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Rapid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

56%

Farul Constanta or Rapid

73%

Draw or Rapid

70%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

12%

Rapid wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

67%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

30%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

10%

Rapid 1+ goals

75%

Rapid 2+ goals

41%

Rapid 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

41%

Rapid (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Rapid away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 0.93 + Rapid defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rapid attack 2.00 + Farul Constanta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

30%

level

27%

Rapid scores more

44%

Rapid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff