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Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
9/1/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 8Central Stadium Hagi Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Farul Constanta46%
×Draw25%
Petrolul Ploiesti29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.60
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.23

Farul Constanta creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.51
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.80

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.65
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.69

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.24scores more
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
71%
Farul Constanta or Petrolul Ploiesti
75%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
54%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
80%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
47%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
22%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
71%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
35%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
61%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.51 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Farul Constanta defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
46%
level
25%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
29%

Farul Constanta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Farul Constanta beat Petrolul Ploiesti 2-1 in Liga I on September 1, 2025.

The match was played at Central Stadium Hagi Academy in Ovidiu.