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Farul Constanta vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oţelul
Oţelul
2/24/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 27Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Farul Constanta43%
×Draw27%
Oţelul29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.36
Oţelul
1.07

Farul Constanta creates 27% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 58 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.59
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.04
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
71%
Farul Constanta or Oţelul
73%
Draw or Oţelul
57%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
20%
Oţelul wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
74%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
39%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
16%
Oţelul 1+ goals
66%
Oţelul 2+ goals
29%
Oţelul 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
60%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oţelul attack 1.10 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
43%
level
27%
Oţelul scores more
29%

Farul Constanta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanta vs Oţelul

Farul Constanta and Oţelul drew 1-1 in Liga I on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.