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Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda — Liga I 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
A. Isfan 70' (pen)
N. Grigoryan 40'
I. Vina 14'
11/3/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 15Central Stadium Hagi Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Farul Constanta53%
×Draw22%
Csikszereda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.98
Csikszereda
1.28

Farul Constanta creates 55% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.61
Csikszereda
0.89

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.67
Csikszereda
2.35

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.06on par
Csikszereda-0.29scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
75%
Farul Constanta or Csikszereda
78%
Draw or Csikszereda
47%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
31%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
86%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
59%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
31%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
72%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
37%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
68%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.35 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + Csikszereda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.98

Csikszereda attack 0.89 + Farul Constanta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
53%
level
22%
Csikszereda scores more
25%

Farul Constanta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. GaneaFarul ConstantaFarul Constanta · D
8.2

Match Events

14'
I. Vina↳ N. Grigoryan
26'
Eduard RadaslavescuGoal cancelled
28'
Alexandru Ișfan
40'
N. Grigoryan↳ I. Vina
43'
Raul Palmeș
46'
B. Szabo← J. Ferenczi
59'
A. Gergely← E. Bodo
60'
S. Jebari← Anderson Ceara
69'
Ionuț VînăPenalty confirmed
70'
A. IsfanPenalty
71'
S. Furtado← D. Sirbu
71'
S. Szalay← M. Eppel
72'
J. Markovic← A. Isfan
86'
L. Pellegrini← I. Larie
86'
A. Seruca← Ramalho
87'
R. Marincean← N. Grigoryan
88'
N. Kajan← R. Palmes
89'
Răzvan Andrei Tănasă
89'
Bálint Szabó

Possession

60%Farul

Shots

11Farul

Pass accuracy

52%Farul

Statistics

FarulCsikszereda
Overview
60%Possession40%
11Total Shots11
2.41Expected Goals (xG)0.63
4Corners3
11Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots11
6On Target3
3Off Target7
2Blocked1
9Inside Box4
2Outside Box7
Passing
60%Possession40%
510Total Passes337
430Accurate Passes260
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda

Farul Constanta beat Csikszereda 3-0 in Liga I on November 3, 2025.

Goals: I. Vina (14'), N. Grigoryan (40'), A. Isfan (70' pen).

Farul Constanta controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Central Stadium Hagi Academy in Ovidiu.