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Farul Constanta vs Cherno More Varna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
1 – 1
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Farul Constanta25%
×Draw30%
Cherno More Varna45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
0.80
Cherno More Varna
1.18

Cherno More Varna creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
0.93
Cherno More Varna
1.56

allows per match

Farul Constanta
0.79
Cherno More Varna
0.67

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
55%
Farul Constanta or Cherno More Varna
70%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
75%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
8%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
55%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
19%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
5%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
69%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
33%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
36%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 0.93 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Cherno More Varna attack 1.56 + Farul Constanta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
25%
level
30%
Cherno More Varna scores more
45%

Cherno More Varna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Farul Constanta 1–1 Cherno More Varna

Farul Constanta and Cherno More Varna drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.