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Farul Constanta vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
4/20/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 31Stadionul Farul (Constanța)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Farul Constanta58%
×Draw22%
Aerostar Bacau20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.88
Aerostar Bacau
1.01

Farul Constanta creates 86% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 31 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.52
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.05
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
80%
Farul Constanta or Aerostar Bacau
78%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
42%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
33%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
85%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
56%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
29%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
64%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
27%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
74%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.52 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.88

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Farul Constanta defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
58%
level
22%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
20%

Farul Constanta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanta vs Aerostar Bacau

Farul Constanta beat Aerostar Bacau 2-1 in Liga II on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Farul (Constanța).