Farsta 1–3 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Farsta

FT

1 – 3

Syrianska FC

6/22/2023

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 13Farsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Farsta52%

×Draw20%

Syrianska FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarstaExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.58

Farsta

2.23

Syrianska FC

1.58

Farsta creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 73 away

2.59

creates per match

1.73

1.44

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Farsta

2.59

Syrianska FC

1.73

allows per match

Farsta

1.44

Syrianska FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farsta+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farsta ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Farsta or draw

73%

Farsta or Syrianska FC

80%

Draw or Syrianska FC

48%

Winning margin

Farsta wins by 2+

31%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Farsta 1+ goals

89%

Farsta 2+ goals

65%

Farsta 3+ goals

38%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

79%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

47%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Farsta (draw refunded)

66%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farsta at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farsta attack 2.59 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.23

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Farsta defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Farsta scores more

52%

level

20%

Syrianska FC scores more

27%

Farsta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Farsta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff