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Farsta vs Mjölby — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Farsta
Farsta
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Mjölby
Mjölby
6/10/2023Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 11Farsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Farsta63%
×Draw18%
Mjölby19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farsta
2.55
Mjölby
1.33

Farsta creates 92% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

creates per match

Farsta
2.59
Mjölby
1.23

allows per match

Farsta
1.44
Mjölby
2.52

finishing

Farsta+0.00on par
Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farsta ↓

Mjölby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Farsta or draw
81%
Farsta or Mjölby
82%
Draw or Mjölby
37%

Winning margin

Farsta wins by 2+
42%
Mjölby wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Farsta 1+ goals
92%
Farsta 2+ goals
72%
Farsta 3+ goals
46%
Mjölby 1+ goals
74%
Mjölby 2+ goals
38%
Mjölby 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Farsta (draw refunded)
77%
Mjölby (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farsta at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farsta attack 2.59 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.55

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Farsta defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Farsta scores more
63%
level
18%
Mjölby scores more
19%

Farsta at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Farsta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Farsta 3–5 Mjölby

Mjölby beat Farsta 5-3 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Farsta IP in Stockholm.