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Farsta vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Farsta
Farsta
FT
4 – 1
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
5/20/2023Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 8Farsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Farsta60%
×Draw19%
IFK Eskilstuna21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farsta
2.50
IFK Eskilstuna
1.44

Farsta creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

creates per match

Farsta
2.59
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Farsta
1.44
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Farsta+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farsta ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Farsta or draw
79%
Farsta or IFK Eskilstuna
81%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
40%

Winning margin

Farsta wins by 2+
39%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Farsta 1+ goals
92%
Farsta 2+ goals
71%
Farsta 3+ goals
45%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
76%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
42%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Farsta (draw refunded)
74%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farsta at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farsta attack 2.59 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.50

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Farsta defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Farsta scores more
60%
level
19%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
21%

Farsta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Farsta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farsta vs IFK Eskilstuna

Farsta beat IFK Eskilstuna 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Farsta IP in Stockholm.