Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Farsta vs Dalkurd FF — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Farsta
Farsta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
8/25/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 18Farsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Farsta50%
×Draw21%
Dalkurd FF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farsta
2.16
Dalkurd FF
1.61

Farsta creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Farsta
1.62
Dalkurd FF
1.23

allows per match

Farsta
2.00
Dalkurd FF
2.69

finishing

Farsta+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farsta ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Farsta or draw
71%
Farsta or Dalkurd FF
79%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
50%

Winning margin

Farsta wins by 2+
30%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Farsta 1+ goals
88%
Farsta 2+ goals
63%
Farsta 3+ goals
36%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
80%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
48%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Farsta (draw refunded)
63%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farsta at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farsta attack 1.62 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.16

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Farsta defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Farsta scores more
50%
level
21%
Dalkurd FF scores more
29%

Farsta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Farsta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Farsta 2–0 Dalkurd FF

Farsta beat Dalkurd FF 2-0 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Farsta IP in Stockholm.