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Farroupilha vs Guarany de Bagé — Copa Gaúcha 2026

Farroupilha
Farroupilha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guarany de Bagé
Guarany de Bagé
Leo Ferraz 45'
Emersonn Bastos 90'
6/3/2026Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · Group Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farroupilha31%
×Draw29%
Guarany de Bagé40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farroupilha
1.00
Guarany de Bagé
1.17

Guarany de Bagé creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Farroupilha
0.67
Guarany de Bagé
1.00

allows per match

Farroupilha
1.33
Guarany de Bagé
1.33

finishing

Farroupilha+0.00on par
Guarany de Bagé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farroupilha ↓

Guarany de Bagé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Farroupilha or draw
60%
Farroupilha or Guarany de Bagé
71%
Draw or Guarany de Bagé
69%

Winning margin

Farroupilha wins by 2+
12%
Guarany de Bagé wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Farroupilha 1+ goals
63%
Farroupilha 2+ goals
26%
Farroupilha 3+ goals
8%
Guarany de Bagé 1+ goals
69%
Guarany de Bagé 2+ goals
33%
Guarany de Bagé 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Farroupilha (draw refunded)
44%
Guarany de Bagé (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farroupilha at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Guarany de Bagé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farroupilha attack 0.67 + Guarany de Bagé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Guarany de Bagé attack 1.00 + Farroupilha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Farroupilha scores more
31%
level
29%
Guarany de Bagé scores more
40%

Guarany de Bagé at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guarany de Bagé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Leo Ferraz
90'
Emersonn Bastos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farroupilha vs Guarany de Bagé

Farroupilha and Guarany de Bagé drew 1-1 in Copa Gaúcha on June 3, 2026.

Goals: Leo Ferraz (45'), Emersonn Bastos (90').