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Farroupilha vs Bagé — Copa Gaúcha 2026

Farroupilha
Farroupilha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bagé
Bagé
Unknown 9'
Johann 71'
D. Segabinazzi 5'
6/17/2026Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · Group Stage - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farroupilha21%
×Draw31%
Bagé48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farroupilha
0.67
Bagé
1.17

Bagé creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Farroupilha
0.67
Bagé
1.00

allows per match

Farroupilha
1.33
Bagé
0.67

finishing

Farroupilha+0.00on par
Bagé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 72Over: 2872%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farroupilha ↓

Bagé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–119%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Farroupilha or draw
52%
Farroupilha or Bagé
69%
Draw or Bagé
79%

Winning margin

Farroupilha wins by 2+
6%
Bagé wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Farroupilha 1+ goals
49%
Farroupilha 2+ goals
15%
Farroupilha 3+ goals
3%
Bagé 1+ goals
69%
Bagé 2+ goals
33%
Bagé 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Farroupilha (draw refunded)
31%
Bagé (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farroupilha at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Bagé away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farroupilha attack 0.67 + Bagé defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Bagé attack 1.00 + Farroupilha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Farroupilha scores more
21%
level
31%
Bagé scores more
48%

Bagé at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bagé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
D. Segabinazzi
9'
71'
Johann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Farroupilha 1–2 Bagé

Bagé beat Farroupilha 2-1 in Copa Gaúcha on June 17, 2026.

Goals: D. Segabinazzi (5'), ? (9'), Johann (71').