Faroe Islands U17 0–1 Albania U17: Result & Stats

Faroe Islands U17

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albania U17

10/15/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 3Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Faroe Islands U1738%

×Draw22%

Albania U1740%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Faroe Islands U17Expected goals in this matchAlbania U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.91

Faroe Islands U17

1.85

Albania U17

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

2.75

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Faroe Islands U17

1.00

Albania U17

1.07

allows per match

Faroe Islands U17

2.75

Albania U17

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faroe Islands U17+0.00on par

Albania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faroe Islands U17 ↓

Albania U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Faroe Islands U17 or draw

60%

Faroe Islands U17 or Albania U17

78%

Draw or Albania U17

62%

Winning margin

Faroe Islands U17 wins by 2+

20%

Albania U17 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Faroe Islands U17 1+ goals

84%

Faroe Islands U17 2+ goals

55%

Faroe Islands U17 3+ goals

28%

Albania U17 1+ goals

85%

Albania U17 2+ goals

57%

Albania U17 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Faroe Islands U17 (draw refunded)

49%

Albania U17 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faroe Islands U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

Albania U17 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faroe Islands U17 attack 1.00 + Albania U17 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Albania U17 attack 1.07 + Faroe Islands U17 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Faroe Islands U17 scores more

38%

level

22%

Albania U17 scores more

40%

Albania U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albania U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff