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Farnham Town W vs London Bees W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Farnham Town W
Farnham Town W
FT
0 – 2
London Bees W
London Bees W
11/3/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Memorial Ground Farnham

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnham Town W18%
×Draw16%
London Bees W66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnham Town W
1.61
London Bees W
3.11

London Bees W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Farnham Town W
1.67
London Bees W
1.89

allows per match

Farnham Town W
4.33
London Bees W
1.56

finishing

Farnham Town W+0.00on par
London Bees W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town W ↓

London Bees W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Farnham Town W or draw
34%
Farnham Town W or London Bees W
84%
Draw or London Bees W
82%

Winning margin

Farnham Town W wins by 2+
8%
London Bees W wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Farnham Town W 1+ goals
80%
Farnham Town W 2+ goals
48%
Farnham Town W 3+ goals
22%
London Bees W 1+ goals
95%
London Bees W 2+ goals
81%
London Bees W 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town W (draw refunded)
21%
London Bees W (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

London Bees W away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town W attack 1.67 + London Bees W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

London Bees W attack 1.89 + Farnham Town W defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Farnham Town W scores more
18%
level
16%
London Bees W scores more
66%

London Bees W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "London Bees W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Farnham Town W 0–2 London Bees W

London Bees W beat Farnham Town W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at The Memorial Ground Farnham in Farnham, Surrey.