Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Farnham Town vs Gloucester City — League #60 2026

Farnham Town
Farnham Townadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gloucester City
Gloucester City
B. Clifford 90', 83', 62'
B. Taylor 65'
D. Sanders 47' (pen)
K. Simpson 67'
5/4/2026League #60League #60 · Southern South Play-offs - Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Farnham Town61%
×Draw19%
Gloucester City20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnham Town
2.31
Gloucester City
1.26

Farnham Town creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Farnham Town
2.13
Gloucester City
1.25

allows per match

Farnham Town
1.27
Gloucester City
2.50

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par
Gloucester City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Gloucester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw
80%
Farnham Town or Gloucester City
81%
Draw or Gloucester City
39%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+
38%
Gloucester City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals
90%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
67%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
40%
Gloucester City 1+ goals
72%
Gloucester City 2+ goals
36%
Gloucester City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)
75%
Gloucester City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Gloucester City away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Gloucester City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.31

Gloucester City attack 1.25 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Farnham Town scores more
61%
level
19%
Gloucester City scores more
20%

Farnham Town at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
D. SandersPenalty
62'
B. Clifford
65'
B. Taylor
67'
K. Simpson
83'
B. Clifford
90'
B. Clifford

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farnham Town vs Gloucester City

Farnham Town beat Gloucester City 5-1 in League #60 on May 4, 2026.

Goals: D. Sanders (47' pen), B. Clifford (62', 83', 90'), B. Taylor (65'), K. Simpson (67').