Farnham Town 1–1 Evesham United: Result & Stats

Farnham Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Evesham United

1/17/2026

League #60

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Farnham Town61%

×Draw21%

Evesham United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farnham TownExpected goals in this matchEvesham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.97

Farnham Town

2.00

Evesham United

0.97

Farnham Town creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.13

creates per match

0.67

1.27

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Farnham Town

2.13

Evesham United

0.67

allows per match

Farnham Town

1.27

Evesham United

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par

Evesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Evesham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw

82%

Farnham Town or Evesham United

79%

Draw or Evesham United

39%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+

37%

Evesham United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals

86%

Farnham Town 2+ goals

59%

Farnham Town 3+ goals

32%

Evesham United 1+ goals

62%

Evesham United 2+ goals

25%

Evesham United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)

78%

Evesham United (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Evesham United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Evesham United defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.00

Evesham United attack 0.67 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Farnham Town scores more

61%

level

21%

Evesham United scores more

18%

Farnham Town at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff