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Farnham Town vs Dorchester Town — League #60 2026

Farnham Town
Farnham Town
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dorchester Town
Dorchester Town
O. Dean 90'
I. Uche 90'
G. Chubinidze 31'
3/17/2026League #60League #60 · Round 25The Memorial Ground Farnham

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnham Town62%
×Draw20%
Dorchester Town19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnham Town
2.23
Dorchester Town
1.14

Farnham Town creates 96% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Farnham Town
2.13
Dorchester Town
1.00

allows per match

Farnham Town
1.27
Dorchester Town
2.33

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par
Dorchester Town+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Dorchester Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw
81%
Farnham Town or Dorchester Town
80%
Draw or Dorchester Town
38%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+
39%
Dorchester Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals
89%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
65%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
38%
Dorchester Town 1+ goals
68%
Dorchester Town 2+ goals
32%
Dorchester Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)
77%
Dorchester Town (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Dorchester Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Dorchester Town defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dorchester Town attack 1.00 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Farnham Town scores more
62%
level
20%
Dorchester Town scores more
19%

Farnham Town at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
G. Chubinidze
90'
O. Dean
90'
I. Uche

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #60: Farnham Town 2–1 Dorchester Town

Farnham Town beat Dorchester Town 2-1 in League #60 on March 17, 2026.

Goals: G. Chubinidze (31'), O. Dean (90'), I. Uche (90').

The match was played at The Memorial Ground Farnham in Farnham, Surrey.