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Farnham Town vs Berkhamsted — League #60 2026

Farnham Town
Farnham Town
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Berkhamsted
Berkhamsted
4/29/2026League #60League #60

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnham Town47%
×Draw25%
Berkhamsted28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnham Town
1.56
Berkhamsted
1.14

Farnham Town creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Farnham Town
2.13
Berkhamsted
1.00

allows per match

Farnham Town
1.27
Berkhamsted
1.00

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par
Berkhamsted+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Berkhamsted →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw
72%
Farnham Town or Berkhamsted
75%
Draw or Berkhamsted
53%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+
24%
Berkhamsted wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals
79%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
46%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
21%
Berkhamsted 1+ goals
68%
Berkhamsted 2+ goals
32%
Berkhamsted 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)
63%
Berkhamsted (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Berkhamsted away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Berkhamsted defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Berkhamsted attack 1.00 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Farnham Town scores more
47%
level
25%
Berkhamsted scores more
28%

Farnham Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farnham Town vs Berkhamsted

Farnham Town beat Berkhamsted 2-1 in League #60 on April 29, 2026.