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Farnborough vs Woking — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Farnborough
Farnborough
CANC
14:00
Woking
Woking
7/16/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Paddy Power Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnborough32%
×Draw20%
Woking49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnborough
1.90
Woking
2.37

Woking creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Farnborough
1.80
Woking
1.33

allows per match

Farnborough
3.40
Woking
2.00

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par
Woking+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Woking →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw
51%
Farnborough or Woking
80%
Draw or Woking
68%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+
16%
Woking wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals
85%
Farnborough 2+ goals
56%
Farnborough 3+ goals
29%
Woking 1+ goals
91%
Woking 2+ goals
68%
Woking 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)
39%
Woking (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.80, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Woking away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.80 + Woking defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Woking attack 1.33 + Farnborough defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Farnborough scores more
32%
level
20%
Woking scores more
49%

Woking at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Woking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Farnborough face Woking (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Farnborough hosting Woking. Match starts July 16, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Farnborough host Woking at Paddy Power Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.