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Farnborough vs Reading — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Farnborough
Farnborough
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Reading
Reading
O. Robinson 80'
L. Fraser 77'
J. Marriott 3'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Farnborough22%
×Draw20%
Reading58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnborough
1.40
Reading
2.33

Reading creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Farnborough
1.80
Reading
1.25

allows per match

Farnborough
3.40
Reading
1.00

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw
42%
Farnborough or Reading
80%
Draw or Reading
78%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+
10%
Reading wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals
75%
Farnborough 2+ goals
41%
Farnborough 3+ goals
17%
Reading 1+ goals
90%
Reading 2+ goals
67%
Reading 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)
28%
Reading (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.80, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Reading away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.80 + Reading defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Reading attack 1.25 + Farnborough defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Farnborough scores more
22%
level
20%
Reading scores more
58%

Reading at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Marriott
77'
L. Fraser
80'
O. Robinson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farnborough vs Reading

Reading beat Farnborough 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Marriott (3'), L. Fraser (77'), O. Robinson (80').