Farnborough 0–5 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Farnborough

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Portsmouth

J. Murphy 82'

T. Waddingham 78'

M. Pack 71'

H. Clout 62'

Z. Swanson 15'

7/16/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnborough16%

×Draw19%

Portsmouth65%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarnboroughExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

2.33

Farnborough

1.08

Portsmouth

2.33

Portsmouth creates 116% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

3.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Farnborough

1.00

Portsmouth

1.67

allows per match

Farnborough

3.00

Portsmouth

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Portsmouth →

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw

35%

Farnborough or Portsmouth

81%

Draw or Portsmouth

84%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+

Portsmouth wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals

66%

Farnborough 2+ goals

29%

Farnborough 3+ goals

10%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

90%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

67%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)

20%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.00 + Portsmouth defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Portsmouth attack 1.67 + Farnborough defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Farnborough scores more

16%

level

19%

Portsmouth scores more

65%

Portsmouth at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

62'

71'

78'

82'

Farnborough

Portsmouth

Manager: S. Day

Manager: John Mousinho