Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Farnborough vs Hemel Hempstead Town — League #51 2026

Farnborough
Farnborough
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hemel Hempstead Town
Hemel Hempstead Town
3/7/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Farnborough64%
×Draw18%
Hemel Hempstead Town17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnborough
2.45
Hemel Hempstead Town
1.21

Farnborough creates 102% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Farnborough
1.90
Hemel Hempstead Town
0.75

allows per match

Farnborough
1.67
Hemel Hempstead Town
3.00

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par
Hemel Hempstead Town+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Hemel Hempstead Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw
83%
Farnborough or Hemel Hempstead Town
82%
Draw or Hemel Hempstead Town
36%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+
42%
Hemel Hempstead Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals
91%
Farnborough 2+ goals
70%
Farnborough 3+ goals
44%
Hemel Hempstead Town 1+ goals
70%
Hemel Hempstead Town 2+ goals
34%
Hemel Hempstead Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)
79%
Hemel Hempstead Town (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Hemel Hempstead Town away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.90 + Hemel Hempstead Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Hemel Hempstead Town attack 0.75 + Farnborough defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Farnborough scores more
64%
level
18%
Hemel Hempstead Town scores more
17%

Farnborough at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: Farnborough 2–3 Hemel Hempstead Town

Hemel Hempstead Town beat Farnborough 3-2 in League #51 on March 7, 2026.