Farnborough 1–2 Dover: Result & Stats | League #51

Farnborough

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dover

9/6/2025

League #51 · South - 8Saunders Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnborough53%

×Draw21%

Dover26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarnboroughExpected goals in this matchDover

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.44

Farnborough

2.13

Dover

1.44

Farnborough creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

1.94

creates per match

1.00

1.89

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Farnborough

1.94

Dover

1.00

allows per match

Farnborough

1.89

Dover

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par

Dover+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Dover →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw

74%

Farnborough or Dover

79%

Draw or Dover

47%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+

32%

Dover wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals

88%

Farnborough 2+ goals

63%

Farnborough 3+ goals

35%

Dover 1+ goals

76%

Dover 2+ goals

42%

Dover 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)

67%

Dover (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Dover away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.94 + Dover defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dover attack 1.00 + Farnborough defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Farnborough scores more

53%

level

21%

Dover scores more

26%

Farnborough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff