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Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge — League #51 2026

Farnborough
Farnborough
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham & Redbridge
W. Fonguck 74'
M. Bloomfield 33'
A. Oteh 58'
P. Kalambayi 45+2'
J. Haigh 6' (pen)
3/17/2026League #51League #51 · South - 30Saunders Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnborough55%
×Draw19%
Dagenham & Redbridge26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnborough
2.45
Dagenham & Redbridge
1.67

Farnborough creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

creates per match

Farnborough
1.90
Dagenham & Redbridge
1.67

allows per match

Farnborough
1.67
Dagenham & Redbridge
3.00

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par
Dagenham & Redbridge+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Dagenham & Redbridge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw
74%
Farnborough or Dagenham & Redbridge
81%
Draw or Dagenham & Redbridge
45%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+
34%
Dagenham & Redbridge wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals
91%
Farnborough 2+ goals
70%
Farnborough 3+ goals
44%
Dagenham & Redbridge 1+ goals
81%
Dagenham & Redbridge 2+ goals
50%
Dagenham & Redbridge 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)
68%
Dagenham & Redbridge (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Dagenham & Redbridge away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.90 + Dagenham & Redbridge defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Dagenham & Redbridge attack 1.67 + Farnborough defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Farnborough scores more
55%
level
19%
Dagenham & Redbridge scores more
26%

Farnborough at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. HaighPenalty
33'
M. Bloomfield
45+2'
P. Kalambayi
58'
A. Oteh
74'
W. Fonguck

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge

Dagenham & Redbridge beat Farnborough 3-2 in League #51 on March 17, 2026.

Goals: J. Haigh (6' pen), M. Bloomfield (33'), P. Kalambayi (45+2'), A. Oteh (58'), W. Fonguck (74').

The match was played at Saunders Transport Community Stadium in Farnborough, Hampshire.