Farnborough 0–1 Chesham United: Result & Stats

Farnborough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chesham United

1/17/2026

League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Farnborough40%

×Draw24%

Chesham United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarnboroughExpected goals in this matchChesham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.44

Farnborough

1.55

Chesham United

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.90

creates per match

1.20

1.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Farnborough

1.90

Chesham United

1.20

allows per match

Farnborough

1.67

Chesham United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par

Chesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Chesham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw

65%

Farnborough or Chesham United

76%

Draw or Chesham United

60%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+

20%

Chesham United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals

79%

Farnborough 2+ goals

46%

Farnborough 3+ goals

20%

Chesham United 1+ goals

76%

Chesham United 2+ goals

42%

Chesham United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)

53%

Chesham United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Chesham United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.90 + Chesham United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.55

Chesham United attack 1.20 + Farnborough defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Farnborough scores more

40%

level

24%

Chesham United scores more

35%

Farnborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff