Farense 0–1 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Farense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

União de Leiria

Jair da Silva 70'

12/21/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 15Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Farense38%

×Draw28%

União de Leiria34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.16

Farense

1.25

União de Leiria

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

1.37

creates per match

1.37

0.95

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Farense

1.37

União de Leiria

1.37

allows per match

Farense

0.95

União de Leiria

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Farense or draw

66%

Farense or União de Leiria

72%

Draw or União de Leiria

62%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

17%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

71%

Farense 2+ goals

36%

Farense 3+ goals

13%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

69%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

32%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

53%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.37 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Farense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Farense scores more

38%

level

28%

União de Leiria scores more

34%

Farense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Jair da Silva

União de Leiria · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Claudio Falcão

27'

Genaro

61'

Jair da Silva← J. van der Gaag

65'

Fran Delgado

66'

D. Dorregaray← D. Poveda

70'

Jair da Silva

81'

Geovanny← F. Romero

81'

B. Sangare← B. Almeida

85'

Lucho Vega← P. Fernandez

88'

N. Gjorgjev← Y. Semedo

88'

A. Ndiaye← A. Candeias

90+2'

Marc Baró

90+1'

M. Baro← J. Munoz

90+1'

S. Velazquez← D. Michel

90+1'

J. Santos← Daniel Borges

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarenseUnião

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots12

11Corners2

12Fouls23

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target5

4Off Target4

5Blocked3

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

385Total Passes313

306Accurate Passes243

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls23

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2