Farense 0–5 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

Farense

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Sporting CP

8/23/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 3Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Farense22%

×Draw24%

Sporting CP53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.69

Farense

1.00

Sporting CP

1.69

Sporting CP creates 69% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 137 away

1.04

creates per match

2.07

1.31

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Farense

1.04

Sporting CP

2.07

allows per match

Farense

1.31

Sporting CP

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Farense or draw

47%

Farense or Sporting CP

76%

Draw or Sporting CP

78%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

8%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

63%

Farense 2+ goals

26%

Farense 3+ goals

8%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

82%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

50%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

29%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.96 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.04 + Sporting CP defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sporting CP attack 2.07 + Farense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Farense scores more

22%

level

24%

Sporting CP scores more

53%

Sporting CP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff