Farense 3–1 Moreirense: Result & Stats

Farense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Moreirense

4/7/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 27Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Farense35%

×Draw27%

Moreirense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchMoreirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.28

Farense

1.21

Moreirense

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

1.42

creates per match

1.65

0.91

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Farense

1.42

Moreirense

1.65

allows per match

Farense

0.91

Moreirense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Moreirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Farense or draw

62%

Farense or Moreirense

73%

Draw or Moreirense

65%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

15%

Moreirense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

70%

Farense 2+ goals

34%

Farense 3+ goals

12%

Moreirense 1+ goals

72%

Moreirense 2+ goals

37%

Moreirense 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

48%

Moreirense (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.91 · 81 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.42 + Moreirense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Moreirense attack 1.65 + Farense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Farense scores more

35%

level

27%

Moreirense scores more

38%

Moreirense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff