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Farense vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga 2018

Farense
Farense
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
8/12/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 1Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Farense40%
×Draw27%
Casa Pia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farense
1.33
Casa Pia
1.17

Farense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Farense
1.04
Casa Pia
1.03

allows per match

Farense
1.31
Casa Pia
1.61

finishing

Farense+0.00on par
Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Farense or draw
67%
Farense or Casa Pia
73%
Draw or Casa Pia
60%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+
18%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals
74%
Farense 2+ goals
38%
Farense 3+ goals
15%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
69%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
33%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)
55%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.04 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Casa Pia attack 1.03 + Farense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Farense scores more
40%
level
27%
Casa Pia scores more
33%

Farense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farense vs Casa Pia

Casa Pia beat Farense 3-0 in Primeira Liga on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de São Lúis in Faro.