Farense 0–1 Belenenses: Result & Stats

Farense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Belenenses

3/13/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 23Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Farense41%

×Draw29%

Belenenses31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchBelenenses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

Farense

1.23

Belenenses

1.02

Farense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.04

creates per match

0.72

1.31

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Farense

1.04

Belenenses

0.72

allows per match

Farense

1.31

Belenenses

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Belenenses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Farense or draw

69%

Farense or Belenenses

71%

Draw or Belenenses

59%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

18%

Belenenses wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

71%

Farense 2+ goals

35%

Farense 3+ goals

13%

Belenenses 1+ goals

64%

Belenenses 2+ goals

27%

Belenenses 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

57%

Belenenses (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.04 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Belenenses attack 0.72 + Farense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Farense scores more

41%

level

29%

Belenenses scores more

31%

Farense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff