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Farense vs Arouca — Primeira Liga 2018

Farense
Farense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arouca
Arouca
9/22/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 6Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Farense38%
×Draw27%
Arouca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farense
1.29
Arouca
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

Farense
1.04
Arouca
1.14

allows per match

Farense
1.31
Arouca
1.55

finishing

Farense+0.00on par
Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Farense or draw
65%
Farense or Arouca
73%
Draw or Arouca
62%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+
17%
Arouca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals
72%
Farense 2+ goals
37%
Farense 3+ goals
14%
Arouca 1+ goals
71%
Arouca 2+ goals
35%
Arouca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)
52%
Arouca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Arouca away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.04 + Arouca defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arouca attack 1.14 + Farense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Farense scores more
38%
level
27%
Arouca scores more
35%

Farense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Farense 0–1 Arouca

Arouca beat Farense 1-0 in Primeira Liga on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio de São Lúis in Faro.