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FarDu vs Pakhtakor II — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
Preview
13:00
Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
8/9/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 14
55%
FarDu
model favours
55%23%22%
1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FarDu55%
×Draw23%
Pakhtakor II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
1.81
Pakhtakor II
1.07

FarDu creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
Pakhtakor II
1.00

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
Pakhtakor II
2.00

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
Pakhtakor II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

Pakhtakor II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
78%
FarDu or Pakhtakor II
77%
Draw or Pakhtakor II
45%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
31%
Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
84%
FarDu 2+ goals
54%
FarDu 3+ goals
27%
Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
66%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
29%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
71%
Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Pakhtakor II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Pakhtakor II attack 1.00 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FarDu scores more
55%
level
23%
Pakhtakor II scores more
22%

FarDu at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FarDu
LLWDD
II
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FarDu face Pakhtakor II (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with FarDu hosting Pakhtakor II. Match starts August 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.