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FarDu vs Olympic — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
AWD
3 – 0
Olympic
Olympic
11/16/2025Pro League APro League A · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FarDu63%
×Draw22%
Olympic15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
1.81
Olympic
0.74

FarDu creates 145% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
Olympic
0.33

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
Olympic
2.00

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
85%
FarDu or Olympic
78%
Draw or Olympic
37%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
37%
Olympic wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
84%
FarDu 2+ goals
54%
FarDu 3+ goals
27%
Olympic 1+ goals
52%
Olympic 2+ goals
17%
Olympic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
81%
Olympic (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Olympic away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + Olympic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Olympic attack 0.33 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FarDu scores more
63%
level
22%
Olympic scores more
15%

FarDu at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FarDu host Olympic

November 16, 2025: FarDu take on Olympic in Pro League A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.