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FarDu vs Metalourg — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
Preview
13:00
Metalourg
Metalourg
10/19/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 23
38%
FarDu
model favours
38%24%37%
1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FarDu38%
×Draw24%
Metalourg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
1.51
Metalourg
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
Metalourg
1.80

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
Metalourg
1.40

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

Metalourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
63%
FarDu or Metalourg
76%
Draw or Metalourg
62%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
19%
Metalourg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
78%
FarDu 2+ goals
44%
FarDu 3+ goals
19%
Metalourg 1+ goals
77%
Metalourg 2+ goals
43%
Metalourg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
51%
Metalourg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + Metalourg defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Metalourg attack 1.80 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FarDu scores more
38%
level
24%
Metalourg scores more
37%

FarDu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FarDu
LLWDD
Metalourg
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FarDu face Metalourg (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with FarDu hosting Metalourg. Match starts October 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.