Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fard Alborz vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Fard Alborz
Fard Alborz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
M. R. Pourmohammad 15'
11/28/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fard Alborz38%
×Draw35%
Niroye Zamini26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fard Alborz
0.90
Niroye Zamini
0.69

Fard Alborz creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Fard Alborz
0.71
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Fard Alborz
0.59
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Fard Alborz+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fard Alborz ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Fard Alborz or draw
74%
Fard Alborz or Niroye Zamini
65%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
62%

Winning margin

Fard Alborz wins by 2+
14%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fard Alborz 1+ goals
59%
Fard Alborz 2+ goals
23%
Fard Alborz 3+ goals
6%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
50%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
15%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fard Alborz (draw refunded)
59%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fard Alborz at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fard Alborz attack 0.71 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Fard Alborz defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fard Alborz scores more
38%
level
35%
Niroye Zamini scores more
26%

Fard Alborz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fard Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. R. Pourmohammad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fard Alborz vs Niroye Zamini

Fard Alborz beat Niroye Zamini 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 28, 2025.

Goals: M. R. Pourmohammad (15').