FAR Rabat 2–0 Yacoub El Mansour: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yacoub El Mansour

Y. El Fahli 79'

M. Hrimat 57'

9/13/2025

Botola Pro · Round 1Stade Municipal de Kenitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FAR Rabat51%

×Draw26%

Yacoub El Mansour23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchYacoub El Mansour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.89

FAR Rabat

1.48

Yacoub El Mansour

0.89

FAR Rabat creates 66% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 15 away

1.57

creates per match

0.93

0.85

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.57

Yacoub El Mansour

0.93

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.85

Yacoub El Mansour

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Yacoub El Mansour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

77%

FAR Rabat or Yacoub El Mansour

74%

Draw or Yacoub El Mansour

49%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

26%

Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

77%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

43%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

19%

Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals

59%

Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals

22%

Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

69%

Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.85 · 117 matches

Yacoub El Mansour away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.57 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Yacoub El Mansour attack 0.93 + FAR Rabat defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

51%

level

26%

Yacoub El Mansour scores more

23%

FAR Rabat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. El Bouadli

11'

A. Hammoudan← A. Hadraf

41'

J. E. El Khfiyef

45+3'

A. ZineGoal Disallowed - offside

57'

M. Hrimat↳ A. Hammoudan

65'

M. Boussanane← M. Balouk

65'

A. Jabroun← J. E. El Khfiyef

65'

B. Mansouri← A. El Bouadli

70'

N. Azzoubairi

70'

R. Slim← H. Khabba

75'

M. Louadni

77'

M. Ahayaoui← S. Ahannach

79'

Y. El Fahli↳ M. Hrimat

83'

J. Ech Chamakh← To Carneiro

83'

S. El Bouchqali← K. Ouarkhane Alt

85'

A. Khouch← N. Azzoubairi

FAR

Yacoub

99

20

13

28

8

▼

Azzoubair

7

Fati

10

▼

Khfiyef

33

Khalloufi

6

▼

Bouadli

23

▼

Ahannach

2

▼

16

3

15

5

2

▼

Carneiro

6

Derrag

34

⚽A

Hrimat

40

▼

Hadraf

8

▼

Alt

7

⚽

Fahli

17

▼

Khabba

Manager: Alexandre Santos

11'▲A. Hammoudan←▼A. Hadraf

70'▲R. Slim←▼H. Khabba

83'▲J. Ech Chamakh←▼To Carneiro

83'▲S. El Bouchqali←▼K. Ouarkhane Alt

FAR Rabat substitutes

1Khayati27Khassou4Mendy23Chamakh24Abd39Missou10Slim20Bouchqali11Hammoudan

Manager: Mehdi El Jabri

65'▲M. Boussanane←▼M. Balouk

65'▲A. Jabroun←▼J. E. El Khfiyef

65'▲B. Mansouri←▼A. El Bouadli

77'▲M. Ahayaoui←▼S. Ahannach

85'▲A. Khouch←▼N. Azzoubairi

Yacoub El Mansour substitutes

3Morsil9Boussanane11Jabroun14Khouch15Badri16Legnibi19Ahayaoui21Mansouri64Doughmi