FAR Rabat 2–0 Remo Stars: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Remo Stars

8/25/2024

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FAR Rabat67%

×Draw24%

Remo Stars9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchRemo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.38

FAR Rabat

1.56

Remo Stars

0.38

FAR Rabat creates 311% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.88

creates per match

0.25

0.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.88

Remo Stars

0.25

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.50

Remo Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Remo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

91%

FAR Rabat or Remo Stars

76%

Draw or Remo Stars

33%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

37%

Remo Stars wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

79%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

46%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

21%

Remo Stars 1+ goals

32%

Remo Stars 2+ goals

6%

Remo Stars 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

89%

Remo Stars (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Remo Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Remo Stars attack 0.25 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

67%

level

24%

Remo Stars scores more

9%

FAR Rabat at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff