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FAR Rabat vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
5/7/2026Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 19Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

FAR Rabat50%
×Draw27%
Olympique Safi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.46
Olympique Safi
0.91

FAR Rabat creates 60% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.62
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.86
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
76%
FAR Rabat or Olympique Safi
73%
Draw or Olympique Safi
50%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
25%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
77%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
43%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
18%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
60%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
68%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.62 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + FAR Rabat defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
50%
level
27%
Olympique Safi scores more
24%

FAR Rabat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs Olympique Safi

FAR Rabat and Olympique Safi drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on May 7, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah in Rabat.