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FAR Rabat vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
0 – 2
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
4/8/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 24Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah (Rabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FAR Rabat55%
×Draw26%
Kawkab Marrakech19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.52
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

FAR Rabat creates 92% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 35 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.57
Kawkab Marrakech
0.74

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.85
Kawkab Marrakech
1.46

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
81%
FAR Rabat or Kawkab Marrakech
74%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
45%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
28%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
78%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
45%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
20%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
55%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
19%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
74%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.85 · 117 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.57 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.74 + FAR Rabat defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
55%
level
26%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
19%

FAR Rabat at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Taoufik SafsafiOwn goal
49'
Yassine Dehbi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: FAR Rabat 0–2 Kawkab Marrakech

Kawkab Marrakech beat FAR Rabat 2-0 in Botola Pro on April 8, 2019.

Goals: Taoufik Safsafi (5' o.g.), Yassine Dehbi (49').

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah (Rabat).