FAR Rabat 0–0 Ittihad Tanger: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

0 – 0

Ittihad Tanger

11/11/2018

Botola Pro · Round 8Stade du FUS (Belvédère) (Rabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

FAR Rabat51%

×Draw26%

Ittihad Tanger22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchIttihad Tanger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.87

FAR Rabat

1.48

Ittihad Tanger

0.87

FAR Rabat creates 70% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 116 away

1.57

creates per match

0.89

0.85

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.57

Ittihad Tanger

0.89

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.85

Ittihad Tanger

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Ittihad Tanger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

78%

FAR Rabat or Ittihad Tanger

74%

Draw or Ittihad Tanger

49%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

26%

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

77%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

43%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

19%

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals

58%

Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals

22%

Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

70%

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.85 · 117 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.38 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.57 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + FAR Rabat defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

51%

level

26%

Ittihad Tanger scores more

22%

FAR Rabat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff