FAR Rabat 3–0 Horoya: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Horoya

10/25/2025

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Olympique de Rabat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FAR Rabat68%

×Draw22%

Horoya10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchHoroya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.48

FAR Rabat

1.73

Horoya

0.48

FAR Rabat creates 260% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.88

creates per match

0.47

0.50

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.88

Horoya

0.47

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.50

Horoya

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Horoya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

90%

FAR Rabat or Horoya

78%

Draw or Horoya

32%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

40%

Horoya wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

82%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

52%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

25%

Horoya 1+ goals

38%

Horoya 2+ goals

8%

Horoya 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

87%

Horoya (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

Horoya attack 0.47 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

68%

level

22%

Horoya scores more

10%

FAR Rabat at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff